but the vice president is appointed, not elected. he has a rival in the head of the national assembly, who would become venezuela's interim leader for 30 days if chavez dies. the national assembly president, diosdado cabello, has strong ties with the army, an important power base in venezuela. we asked arnson whether you can have the president's movement, chavismo without chavez? >> the movement will definitely survive but it will be very different. there will be different factional conflicts, there's really no one who claims the heart and soul of the ardent chavez following in the same way that hugo chavez has been able to do over these years. >> reporter: naim says in one way, it doesn't matter who's in power-- maduro, cabello, even chavez himself. whoever is president this year will face the severe economic consequences of the last decade of mismanagement. >> even if president chavez comes back, for some reason, he will have to make decisions that he has avoided for 14 years. a devaluation of the currency will be necessary. cuttin